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SUNDAY,  NOVEMBER 9,  2008

SARAH

Posted at 7:23 p.m. ET

What will happen to Sarah Palin?  Well, she'll be governor of Alaska, and probably a very good governor.

But there's something else.   The talent agents are after her:

SARAH Palin won't be vice president, but she won the hearts of talent scouts and literary agents who are scrambling to sign her to multimillion-dollar contracts.

CAA, ICM, William Morris, Paradigm and other agencies "smell books, talk shows and commentary for Fox and CNN" as possibilities for the Alaska governor, West Coast PR man Hal Lifson told us.

"There are several of our imprints who are eager to talk to Governor Palin," Random House spokesman Stuart Applebaum said. "She clearly has a constituency and we know books by conservatively-centered politicos usually sell very, very well."

A book can be a launching platform for the rest of her political career.  It can also, finally, beat down the false idea that she's dumb.  She was clearly unprepared for some aspects of the campaign, but dumb she ain't.

As some of you know, I've been involved in Hollywood and publishing, and I will say that Gov. Palin must proceed carefully, and with an excellent, knowledgeable adviser.  The talent business can use you and eat you alive.  They're not interested in Sarah for Sarah's sake, but, rather, for their own.  You have to have two eyes open when dealing with agencies, and have the phone number of a good lawyer.

She's getting some sound advice already:

Public-relations powerhouse Howard Rubenstein added, "She's poised to make a ton of money." But he warned, "She ought to keep an eye on what her goals are for 2012. If she plays a game and looks foolish, if she sounds like she doesn't know what she's talking about - like saying Africa is a country - she may talk herself out of a political job."

True.  I'm sure she knows Africa isn't a country, but a slip of the tongue is magnified when you're in the arena.

And there'll be plenty of knives out.  Consider:

Linda Mann, president of Mann Media, which books celebrities and fashionistas for TV, noted, "Her buzz is incredible. She has car-wreck appeal. You're compelled to watch, hoping she'll say the dumbest things possible. I'd propose a show combining her love of fashion and lack of brainpower - 'Project Dumbway.' "

Classy comment, ay?  Watch your back, Sarah.

I suspect Sarah Palin will do very well with a book, or a TV talk show.  As long as she keeps her dignity, and uses these platforms to advance serious ideas, she may show that she has real political potential.

But those eyes must stay open and aware.

November 9, 2008.        Permalink          

UPDATE AT 5:53 P.M. ET:  From the Washington Post:  HONG KONG, Nov. 9 -- China on Sunday announced a massive $586 billion stimulus package aimed at boosting domestic spending over the next two years in its most aggressive response so far to the spreading global financial crisis.

COMMENT:  Americans are making the same mistake about China that we made regarding Japan 25 years ago - assuming it's on an unstoppable upward trajectory.  In fact, as Gordon Chang recently pointed out in a Hudson Institute lecture, China is plagued with economic and social problems.  There's a real chance of a major collapse and social upheaval.  This is a story worth following. 

UPDATE AT 5:41 P.M. ET:  A very well informed source with a substantial knowledge of elections and recounts sends us the following note about the Minnesota Senate race, still undecided, pitting Senator Norm Coleman against unfunny comedian Al Franken:

...now it's clear that Norm Coleman faces big problems getting to the recount with more votes than Al Franken. By the end of next week, counties will have finished adjusting their final reported totals. It is at this point that big numbers of votes can shift. In the 2006 US Senate election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar lost 666 votes but GOP candidate Mark Kennedy lost 3,520 votes statewide as counties adjusted their totals in the two weeks after the election. If a similar pattern happens again this time, Coleman will enter the recount behind. Early this week the populous counties of the Twin Cities area report their adjusted totals, and that could change the leadership of the race. Stay tuned.

This could be problematical.  I do hope the people of Minnesota, home of Jesse Ventura, don't embarrass themselves again.

NO EARTHQUAKE

Posted at 10:37 a.m. ET

A funny thing happened on the way to pundits declaring Tuesday's election the greatest ever, the greatest thing in history, in the universe, the greatest expression of human feeling, the greatest...

It wasn't.

The Politico reports the sobering news that turnout on Tuesday wasn't dramatically different, as a percentage of eligible voters, than it was last time out:

Despite widespread predictions of record turnout in this year’s presidential election, roughly the same portion of eligible voters cast ballots in 2008 as in 2004.

Between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent of the 208.3 million eligible voters cast ballots this year, compared with 60.6 percent of those eligible in 2004, according to a voting analysis by American University political scientist Curtis Gans, an authority on voter turnout.

One explanation:

In 2004, turnout was 6 percentage points higher than in 2000. But Gans said he believed it did not spike more this year because fewer Republicans went to the polls. While it may be premature to draw conclusions, Gans said, it appeared that Republican voting declined 1.3 points, to 28.7 percent of the electorate, while Democratic turnout rose from 28.7 percent to 31.3 percent of the electorate.

The Democratic increase struck some analysts as modest, considering the party’s immense get-out-the-vote operation, strong anti-Bush sentiment and Obama's popularity.

It may have been modest, but it was enough to help create a landslide victory for Obama.  I am not amused.

But Obama's historic candidacy probably was responsible for bringing more youths to the polls this year, and it also helped explain what Gans said was the apparently significant rise in African-American turnout. Exit polls found that blacks constituted 13 percent of the electorate, a 2 percentage-point gain over 2004, Gans said; the increase may be even more than that, he said.

Finally...

Interestingly, Gans found that state efforts to make voting more convenient — for instance, through programs for early or mail-in voting — did not significantly boost turnout. Of the 14 states with the largest turnout increases, only six had so-called convenience voting initiatives, while in the 13 states with the greatest decline in voting, 12 had some form of convenience voting.

So it wasn't this grand voting show we'd been told about.  Still, our side must do much better next time, and planning must begin right now.

November 9, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  From NewsBusters:  Just catch this absurd CBS headline and subhead: How Obama Can Win Over The Media - MarketWatch Media Columnist Explains What Obama Must Do To Become America's "Communicator-In-Chief"... I know, I know. When you've stopped laughing, you can continue on.

COMMENT:  Anyone who thinks Obama has to "win over" the media should be drummed out journalism.  Unfortunately, that person would probably wind up teaching in a college.

UPDATE AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  From The Politico:  President-elect Barack Obama's 34-point margin of victory with voters under 30 was the largest in a generation, cut across lines of class, color and education — and the most impressive youth mandate in modern American history, according to an exclusive Politico analysis.

COMMENT:  Oh, how breathless!  There's an old saying that America has the world's worst 18-year-olds and the world's best 30-year-olds.  There's some truth to that, but it doesn't change the fact that the GOP has work to do to dent that youth vote.  Of course, if we raised the voting age to 35...  No, no.  I'm not serious.

REAL WORLD ALERT

Posted at 8:43 a.m. ET

Britain's Telegraph has gotten hold of a document outlining the seriousness of the terror threat against the U.K.  (I am speculating here, but I wonder if this extraordinary leak wasn't directed at president-elect Obama, reminding him of what conditions are like in the real world.)

Secret enclaves of al-Qaeda extremists based in London, Birmingham and Luton are planning mass-casualty attacks in Britain, according to a leaked Government intelligence report.

The document, which was drawn up by the intelligence branch of the Ministry of Defence, MI5 and Special Branch, states that "some thousands" of extremists are active in the UK. They are predominantly UK-born and aged between 18 and 30, and many are believed to have been trained in overseas terrorist camps.

Virtually all assessments we've seen at Urgent Agenda say that Britain and Europe are far easier targets for terror attacks than the U.S. because travel here for potential terrorists has been made far more difficult than it was before 9/11.

The Telegraph quotes the report:

"For the foreseeable future the UK will continue to be a high-priority target for international terrorists aligned with al-Qaeda. It will face a threat from British nationals, including Muslim converts, and UK-based foreign terrorists, as well as terrorists planning attacks from abroad."

A recent statement by a major American intelligence official noted that a very high number of terror attacks, going back decades, are made in the months following a presidential election or in the first year of a new presidency.  An attack, of course, could well be made on a British or other foreign target both as a greeting to a new president and a possible way of splitting an ally from the United States. 

Since 2001, over 1,200 terrorist suspect have been arrested, over 140 have been charged and more than 45 have been convicted of terrorism offences, according to Home Office figures. It is also estimated that there are some 200 terrorist networks functioning in Britain today who are involved in at least 30 plots.

But this latest security assessment appears to suggest that the number of individuals who now pose a threat to the UK is even higher.

And...

The report continues: "The majority of extremists are British nationals of south Asian, mainly Pakistani origin but there are also extremists from north and east Africa, Iraq and the Middle East, and a number of converts. The overwhelming majority of extremists are male, typically in the 18-30 age range.

The converts are particularly worrisome because they could be native-born British citizens, indistinguishable from other Britons. 

It adds: "The availability of training/guidance and the necessary components to build improvised explosive devices (IED), allied with extremists' known targeting preferences, mean that IED attacks against crowded places, intended to cause mass casualties, are the most likely form of attack in the UK."

And please note this:

It is also made clear in the report that al-Qaeda cells are planning further attacks in UK with the so-called Government Security Zone (GSZ), an area which covers the Houses of Parliament, Whitehall, Buckingham and St James' Palaces, as a possible target. The threat level in the GSZ is described in the report as "severe".

Security officials are convinced that UK-based al-Qaeda cells will attempt to carry out another "spectacular" inside the UK with major transport termini, such as airports and train stations, being the most likely targets.

Welcome to reality, Mr. Obama.  We hope you'll take this British paper into account when naming your foreign-policy and national-security teams, and that we won't see the likes of John Kerry or Chuck Hagel on either one of them.  This is a time for vigilance, not fashionable theory. 

I'd like to just note that, despite the heavy presence of politically correct adolescents in both Britain and Europe, other elements in these areas take terrorism more seriously than we do.  No country is more sensitive about internal security than is France, and the U.K. has superb operatives protecting its homeland.  We have great people too, but we must wonder about the commitment of the incoming, liberal administration.  Ease our concerns, Mr. Obama.

November 9, 2008.        Permalink          

SATURDAY,  NOVEMBER 8,  2008

NOT GOOD, NOT GOOD

Posted at 5:47 p.m. ET

Well, okay.  Just below this, in the 2:44 p.m. update, we asked that the civility following the election be savored.  That, however, does not mean we must remain silent when there is something to be criticized.

There is something, and it is important.

The president-elect has suffered his first foreign-policy flap.  As many of his critics had predicted, the "problem" is with an important ally, not with an enemy.  Critics of Mr. Obama feared that, like Jimmy Carter, he'd be harder on friends than on those who wish us harm. 

The country is Poland, the most symbolic of the East European nations to gain its freedom after the demise of the Soviet Union.  Mr. Obama had a phone talk with Poland's president, Lech Kaczynski.  Fine.  But the two men gave opposing views on the content on that talk, and that is not good:

Barack Obama has made no commitment that a missile defense shield in eastern Europe will go ahead, an advisor to the president-elect said Saturday, in apparent contradiction of statements by Poland.

Earlier, a statement from Polish President Lech Kaczynski after the two men spoke by telephone said Obama had said he would go ahead with plans to build a missile defense shield in eastern Europe despite threats from Russia.

But Obama had given no such clear cut undertaking on the controversial program, his senior foreign policy advisor Denis McDonough said in a statement.

(The) "president-elect had a good conversation with the Polish President and the Polish Prime Minister about the important US-Poland alliance," McDonough said in a statement.

"President Kaczynski raised missile defense but President-elect Obama made no commitment on it.

"His position is as it was throughout the campaign, that he supports deploying a missile defense system when the technology is proved to be workable."

The statement by President Kaczynski appeared to put a different spin on the conversation between the two men.

"Barack Obama has underlined the importance of the strategic partnership between Poland and the United States, he expressed his hope of continuing the political and military cooperation between our two countries," the statement read.

"He also said the anti-missile shield project would go ahead."

The story is by AFP.  I love the reporter's take that the Polish president's statement "appeared to put a different spin on the conversation between the two men."

Different spin?

Excuse me, but the Polish president's statement was clear and unambiguous.  There was no "spin" there.

Mr. Obama has contradicted the direct statement of an allied leader on a critical issue.  He has also failed to back up the solemn commitment of the United States to defend Eastern Europe against missiles launched from a rogue state, like Iran.  The mainstream media will, of course, either ignore or minimize this incident.  But you may be sure that in the foreign ministries of Eastern Europe, and in the Kremlin, tongues are going and minds are thinking. 

For the East Europeans, this is not the change they can believe in.

Mr. Obama has work to do.  This must not happen again.

November 8, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 2:44 P.M. ET:  The New York Times, dipping into adolescence, runs a piece expressing shock, shock, at how quickly the tone of many critics of Obama turned to praise and congratulations after the election.  Why,, why, The Times's Jim Rutenberg has never seen anything like it.  Doris Kearns Goodwin, a fine historian, is quoted and has never seen anything like it.

The word, Mr. Rutenberg (who is a good reporter) is maturity.  Maturity.  Republicans are not acting as the Democrats did after the 2000 and 2004 elections.  They are recognizing the historical importance of what has happened, and giving the new president time.  There are grown-ups in politics, and, for too long, especially on the Democratic side, they've been drowned out by the children.  Let us savor the civil moment.

THE WORLD DOES IT AGAIN

Posted at 8:53 a.m. ET

We've commented here on the propensity of journalists to inform us of what "the world" is doing.  We now know, for example, that "the world" loves Obama.  I was not asked.  I doubt if you were either.  But "the world" apparently was.  There's a "world" out there that you and I have not been invited to join.  I may enter a discrimination suit.  Perhaps you'll join me.  One of those well-connected Democratic trial lawyers can help us.

It's been three days since Barack Obama was elected.  "The world" immediately reacted with joy.  Looking up to Heaven, everyone saw the stars and stripes.

But wait a minute.  Have you noticed something?  Have you noticed that the grand welcome lasted about a day and a half?  That's about the same time it took for the sympathy we received after 9/11 to wear off.  It's pretty apparent that "the world" has gotten used to the idea of a President Obama.  It's also apparent that...

-  not a single country has changed a single policy;

-  no problem has eased since The One was elected;

-  not too many folks are sufficiently inspired to invest more of their savings in the stock market;

-  the oceans haven't receded;

-  Al Qaeda hasn't thrown down its weapons; 

-  MSNBC hasn't grown up.

So reality is setting in.  While there's an obviously unique aspect to the Obama presidency, the problems must be address the old-fashioned way, with competence and imagination.  Those two words weren't around much during the campaign.  They're around now.

I was struck by the photos of Mr. Obama at his press conference yesterday, with his "team" behind him.  All those gray-haired white guys.  It looked like something out of...Bushdom.  I wouldn't have been shocked to see Dick Cheney walk across the stage.

The moral:  "Change we can believe in" is quickly giving way to solving real problems with real solutions, regardless of the yearnings of "the world" or even moveon.org.

When the French press becomes disillusioned, you'll know we're back to sanity.

November 8, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 8:01 A.M. ET:  There appears to be growing tension in Minnesota over the close, and undecided Senate race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken, with Coleman's people dropping broad hints that all may not be normal, fair or honest.  Coleman's lead has shrunk constantly since Tuesday.

An election night worksheet from St. Louis County showed Franken with 406 votes from Precinct 1 in Mountain Iron. The revised totals Thursday night showed him with 506. Similarly, the vote total for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama increased from 469 to 569 when the final tallies were completed. Both Democrats won the precinct by a ratio of more than 2-to-1.

"Obviously, this is highly suspicious. They found 100 votes, and it's statistically impossible that all 100 votes went to the two Democrats, even in St. Louis County," said Cullen Sheehan, Coleman's campaign manager.

There could be some real fireworks here, and the start of corruption stories, or charges, that could give voice to conservative frustrations.  Franken is a celebrity, and a world-class buffoon.  He draws attention.  Watch this one.